In Mediocristan, randomness is highly constrained, and deviations from the average are minor. To explain how and why Black Swans occur, Taleb coins two categories to describe the measurable facets of existence: Extremistan and Mediocristan. Once Taleb introduces the concept of the Black Swan, he delves into human society and psychology, analyzing why modern civilization invites wild randomness and why humans can neither accept nor control that randomness. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the 1987 stock market crash, the creation of the Internet, 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis-all are Black Swans. Taleb’s thesis, however, is that Black Swans, by their very nature, are always unpredictable-they are the “unknown unknowns” for which even our most comprehensive models can’t account. They compel human beings to explain why they happened-to show, after the fact, that they were indeed predictable.They are disproportionately impactful and, because of that outsize impact,.The Black Swan is named after a classic error of induction wherein an observer assumes that because all the swans he’s seen are white, all swans must be white. This book analyzes so-called “Black Swans”-extremely unpredictable events that have massive impacts on human society. The Black Swan is the second book in former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s five-volume series on uncertainty. 1-Page Summary 1-Page Book Summary of The Black Swan
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